Friday, May 6, 2005

At 21:00 UTC yesterday, the polls closed in the United Kingdom general election. With only a handful of seats left to declare, Labour reached the 324 seats necessary to form a majority in the House of Commons, with the result in Corby at 03:28 UTC.

The Conservative Party remains the Opposition party, with the Liberal Democrats being the third largest party in the House of Commons.

Both the Labour victory and the reduced majority were widely predicted by opinion polls before the election. The BBC/ITV exit poll predicted Tony Blair a majority of 66 seats, which continued to be forecast as the final result as declarations were made. Some early results in the north-east indicated a bigger swing away from Labour than the opinion polls had been suggesting, but later results confirmed the survey.

Overall, there has been no clear swing in votes between the parties. Many seats have seen large swings, but in many different directions, with perhaps the national swing of 5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat being the most dramatic with many much larger local swings.

The new Labour government has been elected with the lowest proportion of the popular vote ever – just 35.2%. However, the Tories only gained 32.3% barely more than the last election in 2001. The biggest winners in terms of popular vote were the Liberal Democrats led by Charles Kennedy, who secured 22.1% of the vote. With 645 of 646 seats declared so far, this has given the Liberal Democrats another 11 seats in Parliament, but the Conservatives have gained another 33 seats. Labour have lost 47.

As a result, Tony Blair is forecast to be governing with a majority of 66 in the new Parliament. However, on some major issues such as university fees and anti-terror laws, many Labour MPs have voted against their leadership. With a greatly reduced majority, Tony Blair may be forced to water down many more controversial policies in order to guarantee their passage through the House of Commons. Speaking on BBC News, commentator David Dimbleby pointed out the uncertainty of such possibilities, and noted that a majority of 66 was larger than the 43 seat majority won by Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom general election, 1979.

One surprise vote was the election of ex-Labour member George Galloway in Bethnal Green & Bow, in East London. The area has a very high number of Muslims in it, and Galloway moved from his home in Scotland in order to gain their anti-war support. He ousted Britain’s only second female black MP, Oona King, in the process.

Robert Kilroy-Silk, the ex-talkshow host who was sacked from the BBC after writing racist newspaper articles, only came fourth in his election in Erewash in the East Midlands. His party, Veritas, which fielded 65 candidates across the country, stood for withdrawing from the European Union and blocking immigration.

Turnout in the general election is 60%, up 2% on 2001.